Natural Gas Weekly Outlook 27th to 31st Oct

U.S. natural gas futures slumped to an 11-month low on Friday, as investors bet that mild weather will dampen early-winter demand for the heating fuel.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in November sank to a daily low of $3.559 per million British thermal units on Friday, a level not seen since November 20, 2013.

Prices came off the lows to settle at $3.623 by close of trade, down 0.1 cents, or 0.03%.

On the week, Nymex natural gas prices lost 14.3 cents, or 3.79%, the third straight weekly decline.

Futures were likely to find support at $3.559 per million British thermal units, the low from October 24, and resistance at $3.718, the high from October 22.

Updated weather-forecasting models released Friday called for mild temperatures across much of the U.S. into early November.

Bearish speculators are betting on the mild weather reducing early-winter demand for the heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.

Meanwhile, investors continued to digest Thursday's weekly inventory data, which showed that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 94 billion cubic feet last week.

The five-year average change for the week is an increase of 70 billion cubic feet.

Injections of gas into storage have surpassed the five-year average for 27 consecutive weeks, alleviating concerns over tightening supplies.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.393 trillion cubic feet as of last week, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average to 9.1% from a record 54.7% at the end of March.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers turned bearish on natural gas futures in the week ending October 21.

Net shorts totaled 13,646 contracts as of last week, compared to net longs of 2,653 in the previous week.

Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for December delivery settled at $81.01 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, down $1.38, or 1.67%, on the week.

Meanwhile, heating oil for November delivery slumped 0.68% on the week to settle at $2.481 per gallon by close of trade Friday.

Crude Oil Weekly Outlook 27th to 31st Oct

Oil futures ended Friday's session lower, amid speculation rising global supplies will be more than enough to meet slowing demand.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in December slumped $1.08, or 1.32%, on Friday to end the week at $81.01 a barrel.

For the week, New York-traded oil futures lost $1.38, or 1.67%, the fourth consecutive weekly decline.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent for December delivery fell 70 cents, or 0.81%, on Friday to settle at $86.13 a barrel by close of trade.

For the week, the November Brent contract dropped 3 cents, or 0.03%, the fifth straight weekly loss.

Meanwhile the spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $5.12 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, compared to $3.41 in the preceding week.

London-traded Brent prices have fallen nearly 26% since June, when it climbed near $116, while WTI futures are down almost 25% from a recent peak of $107.50 in June.

Concerns over weakening global demand combined with indications that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will not cut output to support oil markets have weighed on prices in recent weeks.

OPEC oil output hit a two-year high of 31 million barrels per day in September, led by higher production from Iraq and Libya.

Some market analysts believe that only a cut in production by the oil cartel will halt the decline in prices.

Oil ministers from the 12-member group are scheduled to meet in Vienna on November 27 to consider whether to adjust their production target for early 2015.

In the week ahead investors will be looking ahead to the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting amid expectations that it will wind up asset purchases under its third round of quantitative easing.

Investors will be scrutinizing the Fed statement for further indications on how soon interest rates could start to rise.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in New York-traded oil futures in the week ending October 21.

Net longs totaled 186,774 contracts as of last week, up 5.4% from net longs of 176,671 in the preceding week

Gold-Silver-Copper Weekly Outlook 27th to 31th Oct

Gold futures inched up modestly on Friday, but still posted a weekly loss as ongoing expectations for a sooner than expected rate hike in the U.S. and a broadly stronger dollar and weighed.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery tacked on $2.70, or 0.22%, to settle at $1,231.80 a troy ounce by close of trade.

Despite Friday's upbeat performance, Comex gold prices lost $7.20, or 0.58%, on the week, the first weekly decline in three weeks.

Futures were likely to find support at $1,222.00, the low from October 15, and resistance at $1,255.60, the high from October 21.

A recent batch of stronger than expected U.S. economic data indicated that the economic recovery maintained momentum and underlined speculation that the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates sooner than expected.

Rate hikes tend to dampen gold prices as it increases the relative cost of holding on to the metal.

The U.S. dollar was boosted amid mounting expectations the Fed will remove accommodation sooner than previously thought.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, ended the week up 0.55% at 85.79.

A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

In the week ahead investors will be looking ahead to the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting amid expectations that it will wind up asset purchases under its third round of quantitative easing.

Investors will be scrutinizing the Fed statement for further indications on how soon interest rates could start to rise.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in gold futures in the week ending October 21.

Net longs totaled 75,273 contracts, up 30.9% from net longs of 51,994 in the preceding week.

Also on the Comex, silver for December delivery picked up 2.4 cents, or 0.14%, on Friday to settle the week at $17.33 a troy ounce by close of trade.

On the week, the December silver futures contract lost 15.0 cents, or 0.86%, following two consecutive weekly rises.

Data from the CFTC showed that net silver shorts totaled 8,637 contracts as of last week, compared to net shorts of 9,089 contracts in the preceding week.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for December delivery rose 0.1 cents, or 0.03%, at $3.041 a pound by a close of trade. Futures hit a session high of $3.059 earlier, the most since October 15.

Comex copper prices advanced 3.8 cents, or 1.24%, on the week as hopes for additional monetary stimulus in the euro zone and China boosted the outlook for future demand prospects.

Copper is sensitive to the economic growth outlook because of its widespread uses across industries.

According to the CFTC, net copper shorts totaled 11,942 contracts as of last week, compared to net shorts of 11,375 contracts in the preceding week.

Support and Resistance for 27th to 31st Oct

Path:
Gold- Strong Sell
Pivot point 27256
Resistance 27422,27571
Support 27107,26941

Silver- Strong Sell
Pivot point 38109
Resistance 38237,38328
Support 38018,37890

Crude oil- Strong Sell
Pivot point 5006
Resistance 5046,5078
Support 4974,4934

Natural Gas- Strong Sell
Pivot point 223.6
Resistance 226.2,228.1
Support 221.7,219.2

Copper- Neutral trend
Pivot point 412.3
Resistance 413.2,414.3
Support 411.2,410.3

Nickel- Strong Sell
Resistance 934.9,938.9
Support 924,917.1

Lead-Strong Sell
Pivot point 123.35
Resistance 124.2,124.7
Support 122.8,122

Zinc- Strong Buy
Pivot point 137.8
Resistance 138.7,139.4
Support 137,136.3

Aluminium- Neutral trend
Pivot point 112.15
Resistance 122.65,123
Support 121.7,121.3

Support and resistance for 21th Oct

Gold 27303
Resistance 27440,27625
Support 27118,26981

Silver 38598
Resistance 38834,39118
Support 38314,38074

Crude 5107
Resistance 5164,5245
Support 5026,4969

Ng 232.3
Resistance 236.4,239.6
Support 229.1,225.1

Copper 408
Resistance 411.5,414.6
Support 404.9,401.4

Nickel 960.9
Resistance 969.7,982.7
Support 947.9,939.1

Lead 123.2
Resistance 124.8,126.1
Support 121.9,120.4

Zinc 137.3
Resistance 138.8,139.7
Support 136.4,134.9

Aluminium 118.9
Resistance 120.9,123
Support 116.8,114.8

Support and resistance for 20th to 25th Oct

Gold 27399
Resistance 27529,27739
Support 27189,27059

Gold Mini 27275
Resistance 27401,27600
Support 27076,26950

Silver 38893
Resistance 39177,39463
Support 38607,38323

Silver Mini 38892
Resistance 39135,39482
Support 38545,38302

Crude 5095
Resistance 5246,5377
Support 4964,4813

Natural 235.05
Resistance 237.7,240.9
Support 231.8,229.1

Aluminium 117.4
Resistance 118.6,119.1
Support 116.9,115.7

Copper 414.1
Resistance 421.5,427.8
Support 407.8,400.5

Nickel 978.6
Resistance 1007.8,1032.1
Support 954.3,925.1

Lead 123.6
Resistance 125.9,127.7
Support 121.8,119.4

Zinc 140.2
Resistance 144.6,148.1
Support 136.8,132.4

Support and Resistance Its different Formula

Gold
Pivot point 26924
Resistance 27003,27127
Support 26800,26721

Silver
Pivot point 38603
Resistance 38857,39352
Support 38108,37854

Crude Oil
Pivot point 5312
Resistance 5384,5446
Support 5250,5178

Natural gas
Pivot point 236.9
Resistance 240.1,244.6
Support 232.4,229.2

Aluminium
Pivot point 118.05
Resistance 118.7,119.4
Support 117.3,116.6

Copper
Pivot point 413.1
Resistance 414.7,417.1
Support 410.7,409.1

Lead
Pivot point 127.55
Resistance 128.3,129.1
Support 126.7,125.9

Zinc
Pivot point 142.4
Resistance 143.1,143.8
Support 141.7,141.1

Nickel
Pivot point 1017.05
Resistance 1021.9,1032.7
Support 1006.2,1001.4

Nickel chart

Gold chart

Silver chart

Natural gas chart

Copper chart

Lead chart

Crude chart

Zinc chart

Aluminium chart

Energy - Analysis

U.S. markets go down three percent in a week, the overwhelming sentiment has to be considered, at the very least, downcast. At worst, you might even call the prevailing approach 'Sell everything that you own.' Now, keep in mind, over the last 20 years, we have seen this movie before, actually, more than once. In 1999-2000, the market fell nearly 80% in some cases (the NASDAQ). In 2008, the market lost 45% and 60% from peak to trough in March of 2009. Yet, here we are again, with indexes at nearly record highs (about 5% from the top) and the fear still remains palpable.If we were to compare the current environment with 2008, there is not much which is similar. Back then, major investment banks, insurance companies, and commercial banks or thrifts, went bankrupt (Lehman, AIG, Washington Mutual, Wachovia). Today, the financial services sector have Tier 1 and 2 ratios with higher capital levels than ever before, which means their balance sheets are flush and have the capital to withstand lots of non performing assets. On yonder past, the housing sector was the major cause for overpriced assets being purchased by people who never should have received loans from institutions which never should have written them. Today, homeowners are put through the ringer with credit standards which make borrowing so difficult our ex-Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke cannot get a loan for his humble abode. In 2008, the regulatory environment was, shall we say, a bit lax. Today, conversely, the best description for the fine, upstanding individuals who police financial and capital markets, would aptly be, 'Enthusiastic (overzealous).' Major corporations are in fabulous financial shape, incredibly profitable, and have businesses operating all over the globe in plenty of massive countries where they can grow organically for a long time. The biggest fear which exists is the belief that China, Europe, and emerging market countries are facing deflation. Commodities, especially oil, have sold off hard and it has contributed to the idea that we are now headed back into a global recession. Also helping fuel the fire is the prospect for end of the year redemption's by those entities whose clients are not, to be kins, willing to put up with sub standard performance. If we add in a warning from a company in the red hot semiconductor area, well, the week was not good if you are long.So, in what seems a never ending dilemma of moving from one problem area to another, with two and one half months left in the year, investors are staring in the face of a market which is clearly nervous. Earnings season approaches rapidly, but all eyes have to be on the energy sector. You see, with oil priced at $85 or $90 a barrel (WTI and Brent respectively), all of inland drilling in places like the Bakken, Permian Basin, or Eagle Ford shale complexes may get scaled back as the price to cover production costs just ain't high enough. It seems that, the best answer for low prices is, low prices.We should also point out what is happening in the capital raising world as it has larger repercussions for the corporate world. Three major activists, Bill Ackman (Pershing Square), Dan Loeb (Third Point), and Barry Rosenstien (Jana Partners), have all raised over a billion dollars for future use. You have to wonder what they might use the funds for, eh (hint, hint, maybe it could be to force change at companies which have attractive assets but sagging stock prices)?Last, but certainly not least, the midterm elections rapidly approach. The only area to pay attention to is in the Senate where Republicans have to hold what they currently have and also add six more seats in their column. Currently, it looks pretty positive as the states in question: Iowa, Louisiana, Arkansas, New Hampshire, Kentucky, South Dakota, and Alaska all favor the anti-Obama candidate by anywhere from 3-5 percent, with some variability in the margins. It would be nice to see Harry Reid be relegated to the minority party, although you could make a strong argument it would be better for the minority party than Republicans. You see, even some Democrats recognize obstruction has not benefited their grand party so well, contrary to those who actually run our lovely government.

Natural Gas 13-17th Oct Outlook

U.S. natural gas futures ended Friday's session close to a one-month low, as market players monitored near-term weather forecasts to gauge the strength of demand for the fuel. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in November tacked on 1.4 cents, or 0.36%, to settle at $3.859 per million British thermal units by close of trade on Friday. A day earlier, natural gas prices hit $3.815, a level not seen since September 12, before closing at $3.845, down 1.0 cent, or 0.26%. Futures were likely to find support at $3.786 per million British thermal units, the low from September 12, and resistance at $3.947, the high from October 8. On the week, Nymex natural gas prices lost 18.0 cents, or 4.45%, the first weekly decline in three weeks. Updated weather-forecasting models continued to call for pockets of cool air to trek across the U.S. in the coming days, though temperatures still won't fall too hard to seriously drive demand for heating while staying mild enough to curb the need for air conditioning. Cooler air systems will see reinforcements, though the intensity of these blasts of falling mercury reading remains up in the air. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Meanwhile, investors continued to digest Thursday's weekly inventory data, which showed that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 105 billion cubic feet last week. Inventories rose by 91 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change is a build of 84 billion cubic feet. Injections of gas into storage have surpassed the five-year average for 25 consecutive weeks, alleviating concerns over tightening supplies. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.205 trillion cubic feet as of last week, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average to 11% from a record 54.7% at the end of March. Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in natural gas futures in the week ending October 7. Net longs totaled 6,288 contracts, down sharply from net longs of 26,166 in the previous week. Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for November delivery settled at $85.82 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, down $3.92, or 4.36%, on the week. Meanwhile, heating oil for November delivery slumped 2.14% on the week to settle at $2.560 per gallon by close of trade Friday.

Crude Oil 13-17th Oct outlook

Crude oil futures fell to multi-year lows on Friday, before reversing losses to end the session modestly higher as investors returned to the market to seek cheap valuations. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in November hit a daily low of $83.59 a barrel, a level not seen since July 2012. Nymex prices recovered to end the day at $85.82, up 5 cents, or 0.06%. For the week, New York-traded oil futures lost $3.92, or 4.36%, the fourth weekly decline over the past five weeks. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for November delivery fell to a session low of $88.11 a barrel on Friday, the weakest level since December 2010. London-traded Brent prices rallied off the lows to settle the day at $90.21, up 16 cents, or 0.18%. For the week, the November Brent contract dropped $2.10, or 2.27%, the third straight weekly loss. Meanwhile the spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $4.39 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, compared to $2.57 in the preceding week. Crude oil futures sold off sharply as concerns over the global economic outlook and ample supplies drove prices lower. The International Monetary Fund cut its global economic growth forecasts for the third time this year on Tuesday and warned that the recovery remains weak and uneven. The organization is now forecasting global economic growth of 3.3% this year, down from 3.4% in July and expects growth of 3.8% in 2015, compared to an earlier prediction of 4.0%. Investor sentiment was also hit by fears that Germany, the euro zone’s largest economy is being dragged into a recession after recent data indicated unexpected weakness in manufacturing and exports. Global supplies have far outpaced demand in recent months, sparking speculation among traders about whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would lower production to keep prices high. A report last week showed OPEC oil output hit a two-year high of 31 million barrels per day in September. Some market analysts believe that only a cut in output by the oil cartel will halt the decline in prices. In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting U.S. data on retail sales and industrial production for fresh indications on the strength of the economic recovery. Tuesday’s ZEW report on German economic sentiment will also be closely watched. Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in New York-traded oil futures in the week ending October 7. Net longs totaled 192,208 contracts as of last week, down 4.8% from net longs of 201,863 in the preceding week.

Gold - Silver - Copper 13 to 17th Oct Outlook

Gold futures ended Friday's session modestly lower, although prices held above the key $1,200-level amid ongoing speculation over the timing of a rate hike in the U.S. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery lost $3.60, or 0.29%, to settle at $1,221.70 a troy ounce by close of trade. A day earlier, gold rallied to $1,234.00, the most since September 23, before ending at $1,225.30, up $19.30, or 1.6%. For the week, Comex gold prices rose $28.80, or 2.35%, the first weekly gain in six weeks. Futures were likely to find support at $1,183.30, the low from October 6, and resistance at $1,237.00, the high from September 23. Gold prices strengthened after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting released Wednesday showed that some officials were concerned over the impact of the stronger dollar on global growth and the outlook for U.S. inflation. "Some participants expressed concern that the persistent shortfall of economic growth and inflation in the euro area could lead to a further appreciation of the dollar and have adverse effects on the U.S. external sector," the minutes said. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, ended the week down 1% at 85.92. The move ended a 12-week rally that saw the index gain more than 8% since early July. Dollar weakness usually benefits gold, as it boosts the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies. In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting U.S. data on retail sales and industrial production for fresh signals on the strength of the economic recovery. Recent indications that the recovery is gaining momentum have fuelled expectations that the Fed will begin to raise rates sooner and faster than previously thought. Expectations of higher borrowing rates going forward is considered bearish for gold, as the precious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates are on the rise. Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in gold futures in the week ending October 7. Net longs totaled 37,275 contracts, down 1.2% from net longs of 37,743 in the preceding week. Also on the Comex, silver for December delivery shed 11.5 cents, or 0.66%, on Friday to settle the week at $17.30 a troy ounce by close of trade. On the week, the December silver futures contract advanced 48.0 cents, or 2.77%, the first weekly gain in six weeks. Data from the CFTC showed that net silver shorts totaled 7,071 contracts as of last week, compared to net shorts of 6,073 contracts in the preceding week. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for December delivery tacked on 0.5 cents, or 0.17%, on Friday to end the week at $3.035 a pound by close of trade. Comex copper prices rose 3.7 cents, or 1.21%, on the week. According to the CFTC, net copper shorts totaled 21,249 contracts as of last week, compared to net shorts of 21,438 contracts in the preceding week.

Crude oil two years low and stated forward rally

Crude futures rebounded from two-year lows on Friday on demand from bottom fishers, though gains were cautious on concerns a slumping global economy and a stronger dollar will dampen demand for the commodity going forward. A stronger greenback makes oil a less attractive commodity on dollar-denominated exchanges, especially in the eyes of investors holding other currencies. In the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in November traded up 0.20% at $85.94 a barrel during U.S. trading. New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of $83.62 a barrel and a high of $86.23 a barrel. The November contract settled down 1.76% at $85.77 a barrel on Thursday. Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at $83.33 a barrel, the low from July 3, 2012, and resistance at $91.79 a barrel, last Friday's high. A stronger dollar coupled with concerns that slumping European and Asian economies will cut demand for crude has sent the commodity plummeting by around 18% since July, though by Friday after a rough week, oil prices rose on demand from bottom fishers. Still, gains were cautious, as concerns persist that a stronger dollar, slumping demand outside of the U.S. and an abundance of global supply will spell further losses for crude down the road. Crude also remained under pressure after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday that oil inventories rose by 5 million barrels in the week ending Oct. 3, blowing past expectations for a gain of 1.6 million barrels. The report also showed that gasoline stockpiles rose by 1.2 million barrels, confounding expectations for a drop of 1.0 million barrels. The data came a day after the American Petroleum Institute said that U.S. crude inventories increased by 5.1 million barrels in the week ending Oct. 3, more than expectations for a rise of 1.4 million barrels. Separately, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for November delivery were up 0.08% at US$90.13 a barrel, while the spread between Brent and U.S. crude contracts stood at US$4.19 a barrel.

Gold price dip by dollar strengthen

Gold prices eased in Asia on Monday on continued dollar strength following upbeat U.S. jobs data last week.On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Goldfor December delivery traded at $1.188.90 a troy ounce, down 0.34%. Last week it hit a session low of $1,190.30 a troy ounce on Friday, a level not seen since December 31.In a report on Friday, the Department of Labor said that the U.S. economy added 248,000 jobs in September, well ahead of forecast for jobs growth of 215,000. The unemployment rate ticked down from 6.0% to 5.9%, the lowest level since July 2008.The upbeat data added to the view that the strengthening economic recovery may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than markets are expecting.Expectations of higher borrowing rates going forward is considered bearish for gold, as the precious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates are on the rise.The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rallied 1.23% on Friday to close at 86.79, a level last seen in June 2010, capping its twelfth consecutive weekly gain. The index was up 0.04% to 86.82 on Monday.A stronger dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.In the coming week, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes for further indications on the future possible direction of U.S. monetary policy.Also on the Comex, silver for December delivery rose 0.23% to $16.865 a troy ounce.Elsewhere in metals trading, Copper for December delivery was up 0.19% to $3.005 a pound by close of trade. Prices hit a six-month low of $2.985 on Thursday.

Crude oil price fall in Asia

Crude oil prices fell in Asia on Monday on continued concerns about over supply and with China markets through Wednesday.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in November fell 0.16% to $89.60 a barrel.Last week, crude oil futures sold off sharply on Friday, as the U.S. dollar surged after upbeat U.S. employment data and amid ongoing concerns over ample global supplies and weak demand.Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for November delivery slumped $1.11, or 1.19%, on Friday to settle at $92.31 a barrel by close of trade.In a report, the Department of Labor said that the U.S. economy added 248,000 jobs in September, well ahead of forecast for jobs growth of 215,000. The unemployment rate ticked down from 6.0% to 5.9%, the lowest level since July 2008.Meanwhile, fears of a global supply glut pushed prices down as well.Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia cut the prices of the oil it ships to Asia to remain competitive and retain its market share, which added to fears that supply far outstrips demand due in large part to slumping European and Asian economies.In the coming week, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes for further indications on the future possible direction of U.S. monetary policy.

Gold-Silver-Copper 6-10th Oct outlook

Gold futures tumbled below the $1,200-level for the first time this year on Friday, as robust U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for September underlined optimism over the strength of the economy and fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to raise rates sooner and faster than previously thought. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery hit a session low of $1,190.30 a troy ounce on Friday, a level not seen since December 31. Prices recovered to settle at $1,192.90, down $22.20, or 1.83%, for the day. For the week, Comex gold prices lost $26.20, or 2.14%, the fifth consecutive weekly drop. Futures were likely to find support at $1,182.00, the low from December 31 and resistance at $1,224.00, the high from October 2. In a report, the Department of Labor said that the U.S. economy added 248,000 jobs in September, well ahead of forecast for jobs growth of 215,000. The unemployment rate ticked down from 6.0% to 5.9%, the lowest level since July 2008. The upbeat data added to the view that the strengthening economic recovery may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than markets are expecting. Expectations of higher borrowing rates going forward is considered bearish for gold, as the precious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates are on the rise. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rallied 1.23% on Friday to close at 86.79, a level last seen in June 2010, capping its twelfth consecutive weekly gain. A stronger dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. In the coming week, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes for further indications on the future possible direction of U.S. monetary policy. Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in gold futures in the week ending September 30. Net longs totaled 37,743 contracts, down 14.7% from net longs of 44,265 in the preceding week. Also on the Comex, silver for December delivery plunged 22.1 cents, or 1.3%, on Friday to settle the week at $16.82 a troy ounce by close of trade. Prices hit a daily low of $16.64 earlier, the weakest level since March 2010. On the week, the December silver futures contract lost 75.0 cents, or 4.26%, the fifth straight weekly loss. Data from the CFTC showed that net silver shorts totaled 6,073 contracts as of last week, compared to net shorts of 4,893 contracts in the preceding week. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for December delivery was unchanged on Friday to end the week at $2.998 a pound by close of trade. Prices hit a six-month low of $2.985 on Thursday. Comex copper prices lost 3.9 cents, or 1.28%, on the week, amid speculation weakening economic growth in China will reduce demand for the industrial metal. The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year. According to the CFTC, net copper shorts totaled 21,438 contracts as of last week, compared to net shorts of 12,304 contracts in the preceding week.

Natural gas 6-10th Oct weekly outlook

U.S. natural gas futures rallied more than 2% on Friday, as investors bet that cool weather will increase early-winter demand for the heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in November jumped 10.7 cents, or 2.72%, to settle at $4.039 per million British thermal units by close of trade on Friday. A day earlier, natural gas prices plunged 9.1 cents, or 2.26%, to end at $3.932. Futures were likely to find support at $3.908 per million British thermal units, the low from October 2 and resistance at $4.184, the high from October 1. On the week, Nymex natural gas prices tacked on 0.7 cents, or 0.17%, the second straight weekly gain. Updated weather-forecasting models released Friday called for a cold snap to trek across the northeastern U.S. in the coming days and drive demand for heating. Meanwhile, investors continued to digest Thursday's inventory data, which showed a larger than expected increase for the 24th consecutive week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 112 billion cubic feet, above expectations for an increase of 107 billion. Inventories rose by 99 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change is a build of 85 billion cubic feet. Injections of gas into storage have surpassed the five-year average for 24 consecutive weeks, alleviating concerns over tightening supplies. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.100 trillion cubic feet as of last week, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average to 11.4% from a record 54.7% at the end of March. The EIA's next storage report is slated for release on Thursday, October 9, with analysts expecting a build of 114 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 3. Inventories rose by 91 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change is a build of 84 billion cubic feet. Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in natural gas futures in the week ending September 30. Net longs totaled 26,166 contracts, up 43.7% from net longs of 14,713 in the previous week. Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for November delivery settled at $89.74 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, down $3.61, or 3.61%, on the week. Meanwhile, heating oil for November delivery slumped 3.19% on the week to settle at $2.616 per gallon by close of trade Friday.

Crude oil 6-10th Oct weekly report

Crude oil futures sold off sharply on Friday, as the U.S. dollar surged after upbeat U.S. employment data and amid ongoing concerns over ample global supplies and weak demand. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in November sank $1.27, or 1.4%, on Friday to end the week at $89.74 a barrel by close of trade. Nymex oil prices hit a low of $88.18 on Thursday, a level not seen since April 2013. For the week, New York-traded oil futures lost $3.61, or 3.86%, the third weekly decline over the past four weeks. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for November delivery slumped $1.11, or 1.19%, on Friday to settle at $92.31 a barrel by close of trade. Earlier in the day, London-traded Brent prices fell to $91.55, the lowest since June 2012. For the week, the November Brent contract dropped $4.50, or 4.64%, the worst weekly loss since April 2013. Meanwhile the spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $2.57 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, compared to $3.46 in the preceding week. In a report, the Department of Labor said that the U.S. economy added 248,000 jobs in September, well ahead of forecast for jobs growth of 215,000. The unemployment rate ticked down from 6.0% to 5.9%, the lowest level since July 2008. The upbeat data added to the view that the strengthening economic recovery may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner and faster than markets are expecting. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rallied 1.23% on Friday to close at 86.79, a level last seen in June 2010, capping its twelfth consecutive weekly gain. Oil is priced in dollars and becomes more expensive for investors who use other currencies to fund their purchases of the commodity when the dollar strengthens. Meanwhile, fears of a global supply glut pushed prices down as well. Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia cut the prices of the oil it ships to Asia to remain competitive and retain its market share, which added to fears that supply far outstrips demand due in large part to slumping European and Asian economies. In the coming week, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes for further indications on the future possible direction of U.S. monetary policy. Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in New York-traded oil futures in the week ending September 30. Net longs totaled 201,863 contracts as of last week, up 3.9% from net longs of 193,965 in the preceding week.

NYMEX natural gas bearish demand supply report

Natural gas prices dropped on Thursday news that U.S. stockpiles rose more than expected last week. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in November were down 2.30% at $3.931 per million British thermal units during U.S. trading. The commodity hit a session low of $3.908, and a high of $4.059. The November contract settled down 2.38% on Wednesday to end at $4.023 per million British thermal units. Natural gas futures were likely to find support at $3.845 per million British thermal units, the low from Sept. 24, and resistance at $4.184, Wednesday's high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ending Sept. 26 rose by 112 billion cubic feet, above expectations for an increase of 107 billion, which sent prices falling. Inventories rose by 99 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change is a build of 85 billion cubic feet. Injections of gas into storage have surpassed the five-year average for 24 consecutive weeks, alleviating concerns over tightening supplies. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.100 trillion cubic feet. Stocks were 373 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 399 billion cubic feet below the five-year average of 3.499 trillion cubic feet for this time of year. Uncertain weather forecasts added to the selloff. While a shot of colder air should move across the central and eastern U.S. in the coming days and drive demand for heating, uncertainty as to whether lower mercury readings will reach the eastern U.S. seaboard applied downward pressure on the commodity. "Weather models have been putting out a wide range of solutions, resulting in challenging temperature forecasts for the central and eastern U.S. This pattern would be more intimidating if slightly colder northern Canadian air was tapped, as well as if colder temperatures were more aggressive pushing into the Northeast coast," Natgasweather.com reported in its midday update on Thursday. "It will still be an overall chilly U.S. pattern as much of the northern and central U.S. will experience persistent intrusions of cooler Canadian air, but with the Northeast coast missing out on some of the coldest air, it won't be as intimidating as it could have been." Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in November were up 0.40% at $91.09 a barrel, while heating oil for November delivery were down 0.38% at $2.6455 per gallon.

Nymex crude down in Asia as report of jobless claims

Crude oil prices fell in early Asia on Friday as investors looked ahead to latest the U.S. jobs report which could bolster the dollar further.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in November traded at $91.29 a barrel, down 0.15%, after hitting an overnight session low of $88.20 a barrel and a high of $91.00 a barrel.Overnight, crude futures came off earlier lows after data revealed fewer in the U.S. sought first-time joblessness assistance last week, a sign the economy continues to recover and will demand more fuel and oil going forward.Separately, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for November delivery fell Thursday to $93.42 a barrel, the lowest since June 2012.The U.S. Labor Department reported earlier that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending Sept. 27 decreased by 8,000 to 287,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 295,000.Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 2,000 to 297,000 last week, and while the numbers brought oil up from earlier lows, the commodity remained in negative territory due to ongoing concerns that global supply far exceeds demand.Investors were now looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which was expected to show that the economy about 215,000 jobs in September.On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels in the week ending Sept. 26, confounding expectations for a gain of 0.7 million barrels, though global supply concerns ending the buying sprees.Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 356.6 million barrels as of last week.The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a decline of 0.8 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles declined by 2.9 million barrels.

Gold loss continuous after job less claims

Gold futures extended losses during U.S. morning trade on Thursday, after data showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell unexpectedly. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery traded at $1,211.80 a troy ounce during U.S. morning hours, down $1.30 from a closing price of $1,215.50 on Wednesday. Gold prices hit $1,204.30 on Tuesday, a level not seen since January 2. Futures were likely to find support at $1,204.30, the low from September 30 and resistance at $1,232.70, the high from September 26. Also on the Comex, silver for December delivery shed 23.9 cents to trade at $17.02 a troy ounce. Futures slumped to a four-year low of $16.85 on Tuesday. The U.S. Department of Labor said in a report that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits decreased by 8,000 last week to 287,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 2,000 to 297,000 last week. Investors now looked ahead to the release of the latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, for further indications on the strength of the recovery in the labor market. Market analysts expect the data to show that the U.S. economy added 215,000 jobs in September, after a gain of 142,000 in August. A strong U.S. nonfarm payrolls report was likely to add to speculation over when the Federal Reserve will begin to raise interest rates, while a weak number could boost gold by undermining the argument for an early rate hike. Expectations that the Fed is growing closer to raising interest rates have boosted the dollar and weighed on precious metals in recent months. A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. Meanwhile, in the euro zone, the European Central Bank said it was maintaining its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.05%, in line with market expectations. The central bank also held its marginal lending at 0.30% and left its deposit facility rate unchanged at -0.20%. Speaking at the ECB’s post-policy meeting press conference, Mario Draghi said that the central bank will begin purchasing asset-backed securities in the fourth quarter of 2014, which will last for two years. The ECB will also launch a covered bond purchasing program in mid-October, aimed at boosting inflation. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for December delivery dipped 3.2 cents to trade at $3.004 a pound. Appetite for growth-linked assets weakened after a slew of disappointing manufacturing reports on Wednesday showed that factory activity in the U.S. slowed more than expected last month, Germany’s manufacturing sector slid into contraction territory for the first time in 14 months, while activity in China stalled.