Demand starts

U.S. natural gas futures rose to almost two week highs on Monday as forecasts for cooler temperatures bolstered the demand outlook for the home heating fuel. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in November were last up 1.01% to $4.070 per million British thermal units. Updated weather forecasting models called for cooler temperatures in the Midwest and eastern U.S. later this week and going into the weekend. Natural gas prices received an additional boost from the rollover to the November contract, after the October contract expired on Friday. Natural gas futures have repeatedly tested the $4 level this month ahead of the approaching peak winter home-heating demand season. Extreme cold in the eastern U.S. last winter saw natural gas prices rise above the $6 per million British thermal units level and reduced inventories to their lowest levels in 11 years in the early part of this year. Since then, suppliers have been rapidly rebuilding storage levels amid a boom in domestic shale gas production.The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its report last week that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 97 billion cubic feet in the week ended September 19, up from 90 billion in the previous week and ahead of expectations of 93 billion cubic feet. Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for delivery in November was up 0.11% to $93.64 a barrel, while heating oil for November delivery was almost unchanged at $2.70.20 per gallon.

Gold raise

Gold futures came off earlier highs in Monday trading after the dollar recovered from mixed U.S. data, though the precious metal remained in positive territory on safe-haven demand stemming from unrest in Hong Kong. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery traded at 1,218.00 a troy ounce during U.S. trading, down 0.21%, up from a session low of $1,215.90 and off a high of $1,223.90. The December contract settled down 0.53% at $1,215.40 on Friday. Futures were likely to find support at $1,206.60 a troy ounce, last Thursday's low, and resistance at $1,232.70, Friday's high. Gold prices remained in positive territory despite the dollar's recovery after investors digested mixed U.S. data and determined the economy is still gaining steam. The National Association of Realtors reported earlier that its pending home sales index fell 1.0% to 104.7 in August from 105.8 in July. Economists had expected the index to tick down 0.1% last month. Separately, the Commerce Department said that U.S. personal spending rose 0.5% in August, beating expectations for an increase of 0.4%, after a 0.1% dip in July. The report also showed that personal income, reflecting income from wages, investment, and government aid, rose 0.3%, up from 0.2% in July, broadly in line with forecasts. Elsewhere, gold prices remained elevated due to safe-haven demand after a wave of protests in Hong Kong spooked investors worldwide. Pro-democracy protestors clashed with police on Monday, angry at China's move to vet all candidates running in the city's elections for chief executive in 2017. Meanwhile, silver for December delivery was up 0.01% at $17.538 a troy ounce, while copper futures for December delivery were up 0.40% at $3.048 a pound.

Crude oil fall

Crude oil prices eased in Asia on Tuesday with investors looking ahead to weekly industry and government reports on U.S. crude oil stockpiles expected to be bearish.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in November traded at $94.31 a barrel, down 0.21%, after hitting an overnight session low of $92.75 a barrel and a high of $94.63 a barrel.The global Brent oil contract rose 0.2% to $97.20 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange Monday.Overnight, better-than-expected U.S. personal spending data coupled with news of refinery closures sent oil prices trading near session highs.The Commerce Department reported earlier that U.S. personal spending rose 0.5% in August, beating expectations for an increase of 0.4%, after a 0.1% dip in July, which boosted oil prices on hopes that a more robust U.S. economy will consume more fuel and energy going forward.The report also showed that personal income, reflecting income from wages, investment, and government aid, rose 0.3%, up from 0.2% in July, and broadly in line with forecasts.Oil prices continued to see support after Friday's news that U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 4.6% in the second quarter, in line with the consensus forecast.Elsewhere, prices rose ahead of seasonal refinery closures, when facilities are tweaked to produce gasoline and other products better suited for colder weather.Aside from seasonal maintenance, unplanned closures at refineries in Canada and Texas pressured prices up as well.

Path for the day

Path
Gold26936
B27119,27318,27501
S26737,26554,26355
Sil35197
B31395,35830,32028
S30762,34564,30129
Cr5723
B5774,5834,5885
S5663,5612,5552
Ng247
B249.3,251.5,254.3
S244.3,241.6,239.3
Cop417
B420,421.3,423.6
S415.6,413.3,411.7
Al118.6
B119.3,119.6,120.3
S118.3,117.6,117.3
Ld127
B128,129,130
S126,125,124
Zn139.3
B139.6,140.3,140.6
S138.6,138.3,137.6
Nic1050
B1070.3,1083,1103
S1037,1017,1004.3

Crude Outlook till oct 3

U.S. crude oil futures rose on Friday, boosted by expectations that accelerating economic growth would support demand, while Brent oil futures ended flat, narrowing the gap between the two contracts to the smallest in nearly a year. Crude oil for delivery in November was up 0.96% to settle at $93.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange late Friday. For the week, New York-traded oil futures were up 2%. Brent oil for November delivery was almost unchanged at $97.02 a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange in London and ended the week down 1.07%. The spread between the two contracts stood at $3.63 a barrel at the close. The U.S. contract, West Texas Intermediate, posted its largest weekly gain in a month on the back of a stronger demand outlook and after data showed that domestic stockpiles declined sharply. Concerns over rising global supplies continued to pressure Brent oil lower. U.S. crude stockpiles unexpectedly fell by 4.27 million barrels last week as imports slowed, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude imports fell by 1.24 million barrels a day to 6.87 million, the lowest since May, as the domestic shale boom continued to eat into demand. Crude received an additional boost after the Commerce Department reported Friday that U.S. gross domestic product was revised up to 4.6% in the three months to June from a previous estimate of 4.2%. It was the fastest rate of expansion since the fourth quarter of 2011. Brent oil remained under pressure as growth in oil exports from Libya and Iraq and increased domestic production in the U.S. combined with sluggish demand from the euro zone and China fuelled concerns over a global supply glut. Earlier this month, both the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut their projected estimates for crude demand for next year. OPEC cut its estimate of crude demand by 200,000 barrels a day for 2015.

Gold - Silver - Copper Outlook till Oct 3

Gold futures ended close to their lowest levels of the year on Friday, as the U.S. dollar notched up its eleventh consecutive week of gains, hitting investor demand for the precious metal. Gold for December delivery was down 0.25% to $1,218.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange late Friday. Gold futures fell to session lows of $1,206.7 on Thursday, a level not seen since January 2, before recovering, as a selloff in U.S. equities bolstered safe haven demand.For the week, Comex gold prices tacked on 0.17%, snapping a three week losing streak.The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies ended Friday’s session up 0.51% to a four year high of 85.77. A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. The dollar was boosted after the Commerce Department reported that U.S. gross domestic product was revised up to 4.6% in the three months to June from a previous estimate of 4.2%. It was the fastest rate of expansion since the fourth quarter of 2011. The upbeat data added to the view that the strengthening economic recovery may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than markets are expecting. Expectations for higher interest rates going forward are considered bearish for gold, as the precious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates are on the rise. Investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for further indications on the strength of the economic recovery, after August’s report fell short of expectations Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in gold futures for the sixth straight week last week. Net longs totaled 63,884 contracts in the week ending September 23, down from net longs of 72,187 in the preceding week. Also on the Comex, silver for December delivery rose 1.07% to $17.625 an ounce on Friday, paring the week’s losses to 0.83%. Silver prices hit lows of $17.27 an ounce on Thursday, their weakest since June 2010. Comex copper for December delivery eased up 0.27% to end at $3.038 a pound. Elsewhere in metals trading, NYMEX platinum futures for October delivery dropped 1.01% to $1,300.9 an ounce on Friday, the lowest level since October 2009. December NYMEX palladium tumbled 2.67% to end at a five month low of $781.3 an ounce.

Gold falls

Gold futures fell on Friday after upbeat U.S. growth sent both the dollar and U.S. stock indices rising. Gold and the greenback tend to trade inversely with one another, while the precious metal often serves as a safe-haven hedge in times of Wall Street selloffs. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery traded at 1,215.20 a troy ounce during U.S. trading, down 0.55%, up from a session low of $1,213.00 and off a high of $1,231.70. The December contract settled up 0.20% at $1,221.90 on Thursday. Futures were likely to find support at $1,206.60 a troy ounce, Thursday's low, and resistance at $1,237.00, Tuesday's high. Gold prices took a dive as the dollar rose after the Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 4.6% in the second quarter, in line with the consensus forecast, after contracting by 2.1% in the first three months of the year. U.S. second quarter GDP was initially reported to have increased by 4.2%. The positive data fueled already growing expectations for rate hikes to kick in earlier next year than once anticipated, which would chip away at gold's appeal as a hedge to a weaker dollar in times of low borrowing costs. On Thursday, Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said that the U.S. central bank may start raising interest rates around the spring of 2015, earlier than many market expectations. Separately, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final consumer sentiment index remained unchanged at 84.6 this month, just shy of expectations for an uptick to 84.7. Elsewhere, stocks rose on Friday after investors applauded the upbeat U.S. GDP report, which took its toll on gold. On Thursday, stocks dropped on fears Russia may give its courts the green light to freeze foreign assets, a potentially tit-for-tat move in response to Western sanctions slapped on Moscow for allegedly meddling in the Ukraine crisis. Meanwhile, silverfor December delivery was up 0.54% at $17.533 a troy ounce, while copper futures for December delivery were up 0.25% at $3.038 a pound.

All commodity tips 25Sep

Gold
Buy above 26528,tgt 26555,26596,26637,26678
Sl 26487
Sell below 26487,tgt 26460,26419,26378,26338
Sl 26528
Silver
Buy above 39105,tgt 39134,39184,39233,39283
Sl 39055
Sell below 39055,tgt 39055,38976,38927,38877
Sl 39105
Crude
Buy above 5644,tgt 5660,5679,5698,5717,
Sl5625
Sell below 5625,tgt 5610,5591,5572,5554,
Sl5644
Ng
Buy above 236.5,tgt 240.1,244,247.9,251.8,
Sl 232.5
Sell below 232.5,tgt 228.9,225.1,221.3,227.6,
Sl 236.3
Copper
Buy above 415.1,tgt 420,425,430.3,435.5
Sl 410.05
Sell below 410.05,tgt 405.2,400.2,395.2,390.25
Sl 415.1
Aluminium
Buy above 121,tgt 123.6,126.3,129.3.132.1
Sl 118.2
Sell below 118.2,tgt 115.6,112.9,110.3,107.6,
Sl 121
Nickel
Buy above 1064.3tgt 1072,1088.4,1096.7
Sl 1056.2
Sell below 1056.2,tgt 1048.6,1040.5,1032.5,1024.5
Sl 1064.3
Lead
Buy above 129.3,tgt 132.1,135.05,137.9,140.9
Sl 126.5
Sell below 126.5,tgt 123.8,121.1,118.3,115.6
Sl 129.3
Zinc 141,tgt 143.9,146.9,149.9,153
Sl 138.05
Sell below 138.05,tgt 135.2,132.4,129.4,126.6
Sl 141

Path for the day 25sep

Path
Gold26645
B26763,26857,26975
S26551,26433,26339
Sil39389
B39814,40117,40542
S39086,38661,38358
Cru5622
B5658,5678,5714
S5602,5566,5546
Ng234.3
B237.1,239.6,242.4
S231.8,229,226.5
Cop414.9
B417.6,420.6,423.3
S411.9,409.2,406.2
Alu118.2
B118.9,119.7,120.5
S117.4,116.6,115.8
Ld126
B126.9,128.1,129
S124.9,124,122.8
Zn137.8
B138.4,139.5,140.1
S136.8,136.2,135.1
Nic1050.3
B1059,1071.7,1080.5
S1037.6,1028.8,1016.2

Copper, nickel, aluminium, lead, zinc Tips

Copper
Buy above 415.1,tgt 420,425,430.3,435.5,
Sl 410.05
Sell below 410.05,tgt 405.2,400.2,395.2,390.25,
Sl 415.1
Aluminium
Buy above 121,tgt 123.6,126.3,129.3.132.1,
Sl 118.2
Sell below 118.2,tgt 115.6,112.9,110.3,107.6,
Sl 121
Nickel
Buy above 1048.1,tgt 1055.7,1063.8,1072,
Sl 1040
Sell below 1040,tgt 1032.5,1024.51016.5,1008.5,
Sl 1048.1
Lead
Buy above 126.5,tgt 129.3,132.1,135.05,137.9,
Sl 123.7
Sell below 123.7,tgt 121.1,118.3,115.6,112.9,
Sl 126.5
Zinc 138.05,tgt 140.9,143.9,146.9,149.9,
Sl 135.1
Sell below 135.1,tgt 132.4,129.5,126.6,123.8,
Sl 138.05

Crude and Natural Gas Tips

Crude
Buy above 5643,tgt 5659,5678,5697,5716,
Sl5625
Sell below 5625,tgt 5609,5590,5571,5553,
Sl5643
Ng
Buy above 236.4,tgt 240.1,244,247.9,251.8,
Sl 232.5
Sell below 232.5,tgt 228.9,225.1,221.3,227.6,
Sl 236.3

Gold and Silver Tips

Gold
Buy above 26691,tgt 26718,26759,26800,26841,
sl26650
Sell below 26650,tgt 26623,26582,26541,26500,
sl26691
Silver
Buy above 39451,tgt 39481,39531,39581,39631,
sl 39402
Sell below 39402,tgt 39372,39322,39273,39223,
sl39451

Path for the day 24Sep

Path
Gold26667
B25864,27140,27337
S26392,26194,25918
Sil39525
B39941,40309,40725
S39157,38157,38373
Cru5602
B5634,5684,5716
S5552,5520,5470
Ng235.7
B237.4,239.7,241.4
S233.4,231.7,229.4
Cop415.11
B416.8,418.7,420.5
S413.2,411.4,409.5
Alu118.8
B119.5,120,120.6
S118.3,117.6,117.1
Ld126.3
B127,127.6,128.3
S125.6,125,124.3
Zn136.5
B137.6,138.7,139.7
S135.4,134.5,133.3
Nic1035.6
B1047.6,1060.8,1072.8
S1022.4,1010.4,997.2

Natural Gas Raise by week dollar

U.S. natural gas futures rose to their highest level in three days on Tuesday as the decline in the U.S. dollar spurred investors to buy the fuel ahead of the winter. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in November were last up 0.86% to $3.944 per million British thermal units. Prices rose to a session high of $3.959 earlier, the highest since Thursday. Futures were likely to find support at $3.786 per million British thermal units, the low from September 12 and resistance at $3.990, the high from September 19. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.22% to 84.62, after rising to highs of 84.86 in the previous session, the most since July 2010. A stronger greenback makes dollar-priced commodities become more expensive for holders of other currencies. However, gains were held in check as forecasts for milder temperatures in the Southern U.S. weighed on the demand outlook for gas-powered electricity. The use of air conditioning is a key source of summer demand for natural gas.Updated weather forecasting models calling for comfortable temperatures indicated that larger than normal natural gas inventory builds could be expected to continue for at least several more weeks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its report last week that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 90 billion cubic feet last week. Injections of gas into storage have surpassed the five-year average for 22 consecutive weeks, alleviating concerns over tightening supplies. Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for delivery in November was up 0.73% to $91.53 a barrel, while heating oil for October delivery slid 0.16% to $2.6829 per gallon.

Gold started to gain higher

Gold futures gained some ground on Tuesday, as news of U.S. air strikes on Syria lifted safe-haven demand, altough growing expectations for an early U.S. rate hike continued to weigh. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery traded at $1,227.20 a troy ounce during early European trade, up 0.76%. The December contract settled 0.11% higher on Monday to end at $1,217.9 a troy ounce. Gold futures were likely to find support at $1,208.80 an ounce and resistance at $1,240.50, the high from September 17. Demand for the precious metal strengthened after the U.S. announced that with five Arab partner nations it had launched airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria for the first time on Monday. The strikes are part of a military campaign the Obama administration authorized nearly two weeks ago to "degrade, and ultimately destroy" the ISIS fighters. But gold still remained within close distance of a nine-month low after the Federal Reserve cut its monthly bond-buying program by $10 billion following its two-day policy meeting on September 17, keeping the program on track to finish next month. While the Fed reiterated that it expects rates to remain on hold for a "considerable time" after its quantitative easing program ends, it also projected a faster pace of rate hikes. For the end of 2015, the median forecast was 1.375% compared to a June forecast of 1.125%. The dollar traded near the highest level in more than six years against the yen, while the euro hovered close to 14-month lows, as markets interpreted the Fed's statement as hawkish. A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for December delivery gained 0.47% to trade at $17.858 a troy ounce, while copper for December delivery rose 0.25% to trade at $3.046 a pound.

Copper Rises on China Factory Data as Nickel Trims Drop

Copper rose for the first time in five days and nickel trimmed earlier losses after a gauge of manufacturing for China, the biggest consumer of industrial metals, beat estimates.

Copper climbed as much as 0.8 percent in London, while nickel pared losses after falling as much as 3.2 percent. The preliminary Purchasing Managers Index reading for Chinese manufacturing rose to 50.5 from 50.2 in August, exceeding the median estimate of 50 in Bloomberg survey of economists, according to data today from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

“It’s all about China,” Chae Un Soo, a metals trader at Korea Exchange Bank Futures Co., said by phone today from Seoul. “Today, we got better-than-expected results from the manufacturing PMI, which has helped the prices up for metals,” improving short-term sentiment, he said.

Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.7 percent to $6,764.75 a metric ton at 10:22 a.m. in Hong Kong. Today’s gain reduced this year’s loss to 8.1 percent, still the worst-performing base metals on the bourse.

Nickel in London earlier touched $16,483. If prices ended below $16,800, or 20 percent below the closing high of $21,000 on May 13, the metal falls into a bear market, meeting the common definition of the market status.

Prices of the metal rose as much as 56 percent in 2014, entering a bull market March 18 after a ban on ore exports went into effect in January in Indonesia, the top nickel ore miner.

“You have a look at the nickel inventory run-up over the last 18 months and it’s been quite a strong run,” David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets, said by phone from Sydney. “There’s plenty of nickel in inventory to cover production for a wee while.”

LME stockpiles for nickel have increased 30 percent this year to 339,036 tons as of Sept. 22, according to exchange data. They reached an all-time high on Sept. 18, the data showed. China’s nickel ore imports from the Philippines climbed 6.4 percent in August to a record 5.33 million tons, Chinese customs data showed Sept. 22.

On the LME, zinc and lead advanced, while aluminum was little changed and tin was unchanged.

Crude Oil NYMEX down in Asia

Crude oil prices dipped early in Asia on Tuesday ahead of industry data on U.S. stocks from the American Petroleum Institute and HSBC's China PMI flash survey for September.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in November traded at $90.80, down 0.04%, after hitting an overnight session low of $90.426 a barrel and a high of $91.92 a barrel.In China, the flash HSBC manufacturing PMI is due for September with a reading of a borderline between expansion and contraction of 50 expected, down from last month's final of 50.2, a three-month low.The API data later Tuesday comes ahead of the more closely watched stocks data from the Department of Energy on Wednesday.Overnight, disappointing U.S. housing data coupled with ongoing concerns that the global economy is awash in crude while demand remains soft sent oil futures falling on Monday.The National Association of Realtors reported earlier that existing home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly fell 1.8% to an annual unit rate of 5.05 million in August.Analysts had expected existing home sales to rise 1% to 5.20 million units, and the figures sent oil prices falling on fears that U.S. recovery continues to face headwinds and may consume less fuel and energy than once thought.Concerns that global oil supply is outstripping demand also battered crude futures.While the U.S. economy is gaining steam despite hiccups here and there, Europe and China are still battling potholes, which has taken its toll on energy markets.European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said earlier that economic activity in the euro area has slowed and added he saw risks of a further downturn.The global Brent oil benchmark fell 1.4% to $96.97 a barrel on Monday

Natural Gas Starts temperature seen rising in southern U.S

Natural gas prices posted slight gains on Monday after updated weather-forecasting models called for warming temperatures in the southern U.S., which should prompt thermal power plants to burn more of the commodity to meet demand for air conditioning. Still, futures dipped into negative territory at times due to uncertainty as how mild temperatures elsewhere may cut into demand for both heating and air conditioning. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in November were up 0.28% at $3.914 per million British thermal units during U.S. trading. The commodity hit a session low of $3.865, and a high of $3.939. The November contract settled down 1.81% on Friday to end at $3.903 per million British thermal units. Natural gas futures were likely to find support at $3.786 per million British thermal units, the low from Sept. 12, and resistance at $4.100, last Wednesday's high. After brief cool snap for the Midwest and Northeast, comfortable temperatures will head northward beginning Wednesday, though pockets of warmer air elsewhere may drive demand for air conditioning. "This will set up almost the entire U.S. with daytime highs reaching the 70s and 80s into next week, with the hottest conditions over the southern U.S. where light cooling demand will be needed," Natgasweather.com reported in its Monday midday update. Uncertainty typical of this time of year prevented prices from rallying. "We continue to watch closely the strengthening cold pool over northern Canada for signs of it advancing toward the U.S. This likely won't happen until after October 5th, at the earliest. The northern U.S. will see weather systems track across, especially as October begins, but they should fail to tap into the significantly cold northern Canadian air," Natgasweather.com added. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Sept. 18 that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 90 billion cubic feet last week. Inventories rose by 64 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change is a build of 60 billion cubic feet. Injections of gas into storage have surpassed the five-year average for 22 consecutive weeks, alleviating concerns over tightening supplies. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.891 trillion cubic feet as of last week, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average to 13.3% from 14.2% a week earlier and down from a record 54.7% at the end of March. Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in November were down 0.85% at $90.88 a barrel, while heating oil for October delivery were down 0.94% at $2.6911 per gallon.

Gold Green Rally Starts

Gold futures posted modest gains on Monday after disappointing U.S. housing data prompted investors to lock in gains from the dollar's recent rally and sell the greenback for profits. Gold and the greenback tend to trade inversely with one another. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery traded at 1,217.70 a troy ounce during U.S. trading, up 0.09%, up from a session low of $1,208.90 and off a high of $1,221.00. The December contract settled down 0.84% at $1,216.60 on Friday. Futures were likely to find support at $1,182.00 a troy ounce, the low from Dec. 31, 2013, and resistance at $1,229.20, Friday's high. In the U.S. earlier, the National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales unexpectedly fell 1.8% to an annual unit rate of 5.05 million in August. Analysts had expected existing home sales to rise 1% to 5.20 million units, and the numbers weakened the greenback slightly and gave gold room to rise. The dollar has advanced in recent weeks as markets prepare for U.S. monetary policy to grow less accommodative going forward, while Europe and Japan are seen taking steps to loosen policy to stimulate their economies. Earlier Monday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi economic activity in the euro area has slowed and added he saw a risk of a further downturn, though the dollar still remained soft on sentiments the U.S. currency was due for a breather. Meanwhile, silver for December delivery was down 0.45% at $17.763 a troy ounce, while copper futures for December delivery were down 1.68% at $3.040 a pound.

Path for the day 23Sep

Gold26486
B26659,26823,26996
S26322,26149,25985
Sil39378
B39925,40224,40771
S39079,38532,38233
Cru5596
B5641,5670,5715
S5567,5522,5493
Ng234.6
B236.6,238.3,240.3
S232.8,230.8,229.1
Cop417.4
B422.2,423.8,428.6
S415.8,411.1,409.4
Alu118.4
B119.6,120.3,121.5
S117.7,116.5,115.8
Lead125.8
B127.3,127.9,129.4
S125.2,123.7,123.1
Zinc136.7
B138.9,139.7,141.9
S135.9,133.7,132.9
Nic1062.9
B1094.8,1109,1140.9
S1048.7,1016.8,1002.6

Natural Gas Bounce

 U.S. natural gas futures bounced off a one-week low on Monday, as market players monitored near-term weather forecasts to gauge the strength of demand for the fuel.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in November tacked on 2.2 cents, or 0.58%, to trade at $3.926 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning hours.

Prices fell to a session low of $3.893 earlier, the weakest level since September 12.

Futures were likely to find support at $3.786 per million British thermal units, the low from September 12 and resistance at $3.990, the high from September 19.

Updated weather forecasting models calls for new pockets of colder-than-normal temperatures in the Southwest, Midwest and Northeast U.S. over the next ten days, which could boost early-season heating demand.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on September 18 that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 90 billion cubic feet last week.

Inventories rose by 64 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change is a build of 60 billion cubic feet.

Injections of gas into storage have surpassed the five-year average for 22 consecutive weeks, alleviating concerns over tightening supplies.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.891 trillion cubic feet as of last week, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average to 13.3% from 14.2% a week earlier and down from a record 54.7% at the end of March.

Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for delivery in November shed 4 cents, or 0.04%, to trade at $91.62 a barrel, whileheating oil for October delivery dipped 0.45% to trade at $2.704 per gallon.

Gold trades 9 month low

Gold futures traded at a nine-month low on Monday, as growing expectations for higher U.S. interest rates dampened sentiment for the precious metal. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery hit a daily low of $1,208.90 a troy ounce, a level not seen since January 2. Prices recovered to last trade at $1,214.50 during U.S. morning hours, down $2.10, or 0.17%. Futures were likely to find support at $1,204.30, the low from January 2 and resistance at $1,229.20, the high from September 19. Also on the Comex, silver for December delivery shed 14.7 cents, or 0.82%, to trade at $17.69 a troy ounce. Prices slumped to a session low of $17.33 earlier, the weakest level since July 2010. Gold remained lower despite data showing that U.S. existing home sales fell unexpectedly in August. The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales declined 1.8% to a seasonally adjusted 5.05 million units last month from 5.14 million in July. Analysts had expected existing home sales to rise 1% to 5.20 million units in August. The Federal Reserve cut its monthly bond-buying program by $10 billion following its two-day policy meeting on September 17, keeping the program on track to finish next month. While the Fed reiterated that it expects rates to remain on hold for a "considerable time" after its quantitative easing program ends, it also projected a faster pace of rate hikes. For the end of 2015, the median forecast was 1.375% compared to a June forecast of 1.125%. Gold and silver cost money to store and struggles to compete yield-bearing assets when interest rates are on the rise. The dollar traded near the highest level in more than six years against the yen, while the euro hovered close to 14-month lows, as markets interpreted the Fed's statement as hawkish. A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for December delivery lost 5.1 cents, or 1.66%, to trade at a four-month low of $3.040 a pound. Copper traders looked ahead to key Chinese economic data later this week to gauge the strength of the world’s second largest economy. The next slice of Chinese economic data to come out will be the HSBC preliminary purchasing managers' index for September, due on Tuesday. The report is expected to show that factory activity deteriorated to a 4-month low of 50.0 this month from August’s reading of 50.2. China’s Finance Minister Lou Jiwei reiterated that policymakers in Beijing will not make major policy adjustments in response to individual economic indicators. The comments were made at a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors from the G20 countries in Australia over the weekend, according to a statement from the People's Bank of China. Lou’s comment dampened speculation that China will increase stimulus to meet this year’s growth target of 7.5%. The Asian nation is the world's largest copper consumer, accounting for nearly 40% of global demand.

2nd path for intraday 22sep

GOLD
RESISTANCE : - 26850, 27000 
SUPPORT : - 26500, 26300 
SELL ON HIGH  

SILVER
RESISTANCE : - 41200, 41500 
SUPPORT : - 40600, 40200 
SELL ON HIGH
 
COPPER
RESISTANCE : - 423.00, 427.00 
SUPPORT : - 417.00, 414.00 
SELL ON HIGH  

LEAD
RESISTANCE : - 127.00, 128.00 
SUPPORT : - 124.00, 123.00 
SELL ON HIGH

ZINC
RESISTANCE : - 138.50, 139.50 
SUPPORT : - 135.50, 134.50 
SELL ON HIGH    

ALUMINUM
RESISTANCE : - 120.50, 121.50 
SUPPORT : - 117.50, 116.50 
SELL ON HIGH   

NICKEL
RESISTANCE : - 1095.00, 1105.00 
SUPPORT : - 1075.00, 1065.00 
SELL ON HIGH 

CRUDE OIL
RESISTANCE : - 5720, 5760 
SUPPORT : - 5620, 5580 
SELL ON HIGH 

NATURAL GAS
RESISTANCE : - 242.00, 245.00 
SUPPORT : - 234.00, 230.00 
SELL ON HIGH

Suggested trend

Copper down trend sl of 421 expected target 412
Crude oil down trend with sl of 6165
Ng down trend sl of 242
Silver Gold down trend

Path for the day 22sep

Gold26500
B26625,26725,26825
S26420,26350,26210
Sil40000
B40550,41450,41990
S39115,38601,37690
Cru5600
B5648,5674,5700
S5579,5550,5517
Ng235
B237.6,240,242
S233,231,228.5
Cop420
B422.7,424.4,427
418.1,416,413.85
Alu119
B119.5,120,120.5
S118.7,118.2,117.4
Lead126
B127.4,127.9,128.8
S125.8,125.1,124.4
Zn137.5
B138.7,139.1,140
S137.2,136.6,135.9
Nic1083
B1088,1095,1100
S1075,1071,1063
RsCommodityTips

Copper info

Copper futures fell for the third straight day as the dollar's rally cut demand for raw materials as alternative assets. A measure of the greenback against six major currencies headed for the 10th straight weekly increase, the longest rally since at least March 1967. The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials touched the lowest in more than five years, and a gauge of the six main metals traded in London dropped to a 12-week low. "Everything is a little bit down, and one of the reasons

Natural Gas Info

Gas traders betting that ample supply will limit price gains risk a repeat of last winter’s rally as forecasts for another frigid season raise the specter of supply constraints. AccuWeather Inc. and Commodity Weather Group LLC predict below-normal temperatures for much of the U.S. this winter. The price difference between gas for delivery in October and January is the narrowest for this time of year since 2000, a sign that the market views stockpiles as adequate to meet peak heating demand.

Natural Gas Outlook 22-26Sep

U.S. natural gas futures ended Friday's session lower, as investors monitored near-term weather forecasts to gauge the strength of demand for the fuel. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in October shed 7.3 cents, or 1.87%, to settle at $3.837 per million British thermal units by close of trade on Friday. A day earlier, natural gas prices plunged 10.3 cents, or 2.57%, to end at $3.910. Futures were likely to find support at $3.786 per million British thermal units, the low from September 12 and resistance at $4.027, the high from September 18. On the week, Nymex natural gas prices lost 2.0 cents, or 0.51%. Updated weather-forecasting models released Friday called for mild temperatures for a good portion of the U.S. into early October, which should dampen demand. Meanwhile, investors continued to digest Thursday's inventory data, which showed a larger than expected increase for the 22nd consecutive week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 90 billion cubic feet last week. Inventories rose by 48 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change is a build of 71 billion cubic feet. Injections of gas into storage have surpassed the five-year average for 22 consecutive weeks, alleviating concerns over tightening supplies. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.891 trillion cubic feet as of last week, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average to 13.3% from 14.2% a week earlier and down from a record 54.7% at the end of March. The EIA's next storage report is slated for release on Thursday, September 18, with analysts expecting a build of 93 billion cubic feet for the week ending September 12. Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in natural gas futures in the week ending September 16. Net longs totaled 13,119 contracts, down 30.95% from net longs of 19,000 in the previous week. Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for November delivery settled at $91.65 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, down 62 cents, or 0.67%, on the week. Meanwhile, heating oil for October delivery slumped 0.94% on the week to settle at $2.716 per gallon by close of trade Friday

Gold Silver Copper Outlook 22-26Sep

TGold futures tumbled to a nine-month low on Friday, as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations for higher U.S. interest rates dampened sentiment for the precious metal. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery hit a session low of $1,214.20 a troy ounce on Friday, a level not seen since January 2. Prices recovered to settle at $1,216.60, down $10.30, or 0.84%, for the day. For the week, Comex gold prices lost $14.90, or 1.2%, the third consecutive weekly drop. Futures were likely to find support at $1,204.30, the low from January 2 and resistance at $1,240.10, the high from September 17. The Federal Reserve cut its monthly bond-buying program by another $10 billion following its two-day policy meeting on September 17, keeping the program on track to finish next month. While the Fed reiterated that it expects rates to remain on hold for a "considerable time" after its quantitative easing program ends, it also projected a faster pace of rate hikes. For the end of 2015, the median forecast was 1.375% compared to a June forecast of 1.125%. Expectations of higher borrowing rates going forward is considered bearish for gold, as the precious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates are on the rise. Speaking at the central bank’s post-policy meeting press conference, Fed Chair Janet Yellen emphasized that the timing of the first rate hike would be data-dependent. The dollar rose to its highest level in more than six years against the yen USD/JPY, while the euro EUR/USD slid to fresh 14-month lows, as markets interpreted the Fed's statement as hawkish. A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on U.S. data on new and existing home sales, as well as reports on durable goods orders and initial jobless claims. A recent batch of upbeat U.S. economic data underlined optimism over the strength of the economy and fuelled expectations that the Fed will begin to raise rates sooner than previously thought. Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in gold futures in the week ending September 16. Net longs totaled 55,716 contracts, down 21.9% from net longs of 71,376 in the preceding week. Also on the Comex, silver for December delivery plunged 67.3 cents, or 3.63%, on Friday to settle the week at $17.84 a troy ounce by close of trade. Prices hit a daily low of $17.78 earlier, the weakest level since August 2010. On the week, the December silver futures contract lost 76.0 cents, or 4.08%, the ninth weekly decline over the past ten weeks. Data from the CFTC showed that net silver shorts totaled 4,557 contracts as of last week, compared to net longs of 2,237 contracts in the preceding week. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for December delivery shed 0.2 cents, or 0.08%, on Friday to end the week at $3.091 a pound by close of trade. Comex copper prices lost 1.5 cents, or 0.48%, on the week, amid speculation weakening economic growth in China will reduce demand for the industrial metal. The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year. According to the CFTC, net copper longs totaled 805 contracts as of last week, compared to net shorts of 2,077 contracts in the preceding week.

Gold Falls on Equity Rally; Silver Drops to Four-Year Low

Gold futures fell to an eight-month low as equities surged to a record, crimping demand for the precious metal as an alternative asset. Silver tumbled below $18 an ounce to the cheapest in four years.

Gold dropped for the third straight week after the Federal Reserve raised its estimate for a key lending rate even as policy makers affirmed a pledge to keep borrowing costs close to zero percent for a considerable time.

Crude Oil Weekly Outlook 22-26Sep

West Texas Intermediate oil futures declined on Friday, as concerns about weak demand and a broadly stronger U.S. dollar weighed. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in November shed 33 cents, or 0.36%, to end the week at $91.65 a barrel by close of trade on Friday. For the week, New York-traded oil futures lost 62 cents, or 0.67%, the 11th weekly decline over the past 13 weeks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said September 17 that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels last week, the first weekly gain in five weeks. Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 362.3 million barrels, the highest level for this time of year since 2012. A stronger dollar also kept pressure on oil and other dollar-denominated commodities. The greenback rose to its highest level in more than six years against the yen USD/JPY, while the euro EUR/USD slid to fresh 14-month lows after the Federal Reserve brought forward its outlook for rising interest rates. For the end of 2015, the median forecast was 1.375% compared to a June forecast of 1.125%. The U.S. central bank cut its monthly bond-buying program by another $10 billion following its two-day policy meeting on September 17, keeping the program on track to finish next month. Markets interpreted the Fed's statement as hawkish, despite policymakers maintaining language suggesting that rate hikes would not happen for a "considerable time." Oil prices typically weaken when the U.S. currency strengthens as the dollar-priced commodity becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies. Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in New York-traded oil futures in the week ending September 16. Net longs totaled 203,648 contracts as of last week, up 8.4% from net longs of 186,612 in the preceding week. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for November delivery tacked on 69 cents, or 0.71%, on Friday to settle at $98.39 a barrel by close of trade. For the week, the November Brent contract gained $1.28, or 1.3%, amid reports that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could trim its 2015 output target by 500,000 barrels per day at its November meeting in light of weakening global demand. London-traded Brent prices have slid in recent weeks on concerns that global supply remains ample while demand remains weak. Meanwhile the spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $6.74 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, compared to $4.84 in the preceding week. In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting Tuesday’s data on euro zone private sector activity, amid concerns that the recovery in the region is losing momentum. Preliminary data on manufacturing activity in China will also be closely watched. The week will also bring a fresh look at the U.S. housing sector, with reports on both new and existing home sales, as well as Thursday’s data on durable goods orders and initial jobless claims.